seguridad2

La seguridad a la mitad del camino

Num. 7 | Reivindicar Sinaloa

 

Santiago Roel

Nacionales y extranjeros siguen percibiendo a México como un país corrupto y violento, que no ha resuelto las 3 causas de inseguridad: falta de oportunidades para los jóvenes, mal gobierno y mercado negro de las drogas.

¿Cómo evaluamos al presidente Peña Nieto en seguridad? ¿Han bajado los delitos en estos 3 años? Si estimamos 2015 y lo comparamos con 2011, todos los delitos –salvo extorsiones– han bajado en porcentajes importantes.

Muchos de éstos aparecerían en verde en el Semáforo Delictivo por haber logrado una reducción superior a 25%. En homicidios pasamos de una tasa de casi 20 por cada 100,000 habitantes en 2011, a una de 13 en 2015.

Pero “verde” es una comparación estadística, no una percepción de seguridad. El 75% de los ciudadanos sigue opinando que México es más inseguro; sólo 5% dice que ha mejorado.

Los clientes siempre tienen la razón: que hayan bajado los índices no quiere decir que hayamos llegado ya a niveles de paz. México se sigue percibiendo como un país corrupto y violento, tanto por los nacionales como por los extranjeros. México, como ya lo hemos dicho, no ha resuelto las 3 causas de inseguridad:

  1. Falta de oportunidades para jóvenes (tema social y económico de largo plazo).
  2. Mal gobierno (ineficacia y corrupción en los tres poderes y los tres niveles de gobierno, también de largo plazo).
  3. Mercado negro de las drogas (el que nos causa 80% de la violencia y la corrupción de alto impacto, tema de corto plazo).

La primera y segunda causas sí han sido atendidas por el presidente. Su programa de seguridad se ha enfocado en paliar las carencias sociales, muy focalizadas en barrios y ciudades específicas, pero sabemos que esto no se resuelve en 3 años, y depende, en gran parte, de la capacidad de gestión de gobiernos locales y de la economía.

La de mal gobierno sólo se ha focalizado en policías municipales y estatales, pero la estrategia de este presidente es igual a la del anterior: enviar policías federales y ejército a las zonas de conflicto, es decir, tratar de apagar incendios. ¿El mando único? ¿El 911? Más importante aún, ¿y la corrupción e ineficacia generalizadas en todos los órdenes de gobierno, acaso el gobierno federal ha dado ejemplo de ello?

Por último, en la principal causa de violencia de alto impacto: la política de drogas, seguimos tratando el tema como un tabú, que nadie entiende y nadie quiere hablar de él por temor al ridículo. Seguimos creyendo que las mafias y los narcopolíticos son los más indicados para manejar el mercado y proteger a nuestros hijos. Seguimos creyendo que es un tema policiaco, en lugar de verlo como un tema de salud y de economía de mercados negros. Y mientras tengamos a este monstruo en la sala de nuestra casa y nadie quiera sacarlo, y ni siquiera comentar el tema, no habrá paz en México.

Si yo fuera el guionista de la telenovela lo convertiría en héroe demostrándole a México y al mundo cómo se resuelve este tema, y, de paso, aclarándole a EU que somos un país inteligente e independiente. Arriesgaría todo ante mi nula popularidad para pasar a ser uno de los mejores presidentes de la historia. Pero mi personaje es real, no ficticio, y no puedo otorgarle un mejor nivel de conciencia.

Santiago Roel es fundador del Semáforo Delictivo Nacional, especialista en procesos de cambio, prevención social de la violencia, reforma administrativa y sistemas complejos.

Variación 2015 vs 2011

Homicidio      -28%

Secuestro       -25%

Extorsión         14%

Auto                -34%

Casa                -26%

Negocio          -17%

Lesiones         -15%

Violación       -23%

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