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La ruta crítica del voto de castigo en el 2018

Num. 12 | Salud y Enfermedad

 

Héctor Tenorio

Algunas encuestas muestran con claridad el desencanto que existe entre la población ante los pobres resultados que ha arrojado la transición democrática iniciada en el 2000.  Resalta el profundo desconocimiento que la gente tiene sobre las funciones de las instituciones que, irónicamente, en vez de fortalecerse se han ido debilitando; un caso muy claro es el Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE). En este sentido debemos analizar el comportamiento de los partidos políticos, que en nada ayudan a mejorar la situación, pues en vez de estar respaldado las necesidades de la población, se encuentran enfrascados en un disputa interna por los puestos de elección.

Es cierto que hay intentos de impulsar la participación de los ciudadanos: el debate sobre la legalización de la marihuana y la propuesta de 3 de 3, que pretende que los candidatos a puestos de elección popular se comprometan a presentar ante la ciudadanía no sólo su declaración patrimonial, sino tres tipos de declaraciones, a fin de combatir la corrupción y el conflicto de intereses en la clase política. Son buenas ideas, pero detrás de ellas se encuentran intereses de empresarios y de políticos que buscan acomodo.

En este contexto, cada vez es más frecuente que las personas expresen su deseo por votar en el 2018 por Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Él ha radicalizado su discurso contra la mafia del poder y les recrimina las desigualdades sociales que saltan a la vista. A diferencia de los procesos electorales del 2006 y del 2012, hoy no tiene el lastre que significa el PRD.  El tabasqueño diseñó a su gusto Morena, donde en su interior se vive una batalla campal por alcanzar el poder. No fue gratuito que en Tijuana, militantes que tienen sus derechos suspendidos protestaran y le escupieran al ex candidato presidencial. Incluso se especula que si López Obrador continúa creciendo en las encuetas, los poderes fácticos no dudarían en provocar un golpe de Estado y si fuera necesario,  eliminarlo físicamente.

Vale la pena preguntarse: ¿Por qué votar a favor de López Obrador en el 2018? En el 2012, el grueso de los electores que se inclinaron por el PRI, lo hicieron imaginando que habría una bonanza financiera: aplaudieron la aprobación de las reformas estructurales que dieron al traste con la Constitución de 1917, se justificaron asegurando que el país se encaminaba a la prosperidad. Sin embargo, esto no ha sucedido. Nos dirigimos al cuarto año del gobierno y los recortes se han multiplicado,  y el próximo año luce más complicado. Se podrá alegar que la recesión es producto de factores externos como es la guerra entre ciertas compañías de petróleo de los Estados Unidos y Arabia Saudita, que han provocado el desplome de los precios del oro negro. En las calles de la Ciudad de México se percibe el pesimismo. Sin exagerar, de cada cinco restaurantes, sólo uno tiene clientela entre semana.

Sin duda, en el imaginario colectivo prevalece la idea de la necesidad de llevar al poder a un jefe de Estado fuerte que raye en lo autoritario, siempre y cuando se tenga un crecimiento económico sostenido. Como no se ha dado en mucho tiempo, hay enojo y decepción. A esto se suma la necesidad de los votantes de abrigar la esperanza que AMLO podrá encabezar un gobierno nacionalista que logre controlar la corrupción y revierta los efectos de las medidas tomadas por las últimas tres administraciones. Pero no existen garantías que este posible experimento pudiera funcionar. Recordemos que López Obrador cree en un modelo político basado en el presidencialismo de la década de los 70. En ese tiempo se controlaba todo; la dificultad es que ese México, por suerte, ya no existe y es imposible reproducirlo.

tenorio_hector@hotmail.com

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