Brexit lo que viene

Brexit: lo que viene

Num 15 | Lo otro y sus fobias.

Esteban Illades

Este jueves, los votantes del Reino Unido fueron a las urnas y respondieron a una pregunta: “¿Debería el Reino Unido permanecer como miembro de la Unión Europea o salir de la Unión Europea?”. (Nexos) El resultado, con el 100% de los votos contabilizados y una participación del 72%, fue el siguiente: 48.1% (16141,241 votos) a favor de quedarse y 51.9% (17,410,742 votos) a favor de irse. A pesar de que el referendo no es vinculante, y en un caso extremo, podría ser ignorado por el gobierno (Financial Times, en inglés), el resultado ha comenzado a generar olas considerables a nivel mundial.

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En este texto no nos ocuparemos de las posibles repercusiones económicas del llamadoBrexit, dado que la volatilidad actual de los mercados no permite hacer análisis informados, todavía, sobre las consecuencias en la economía local y global de este referendo. Vale la pena mencionar, si acaso, que el gobierno mexicano volvió a ajustar su gasto a la baja –entiéndase, a hacer recortes– para el futuro cercano. (Milenio) Lo interesante aquí es ver las probables consecuencias políticas globales dado que, en un plazo no mayor a dos años –aunque, según funcionarios de la Unión Europea (UE), se buscará adelantar el proceso–, el Reino Unido abandonará la Unión. (The Guardian, en inglés)

Las primeras consecuencias son locales. Según un análisis de YouGov (en inglés), la división de edades en la votación es muy marcada. Mientras que en el rango de edad de 18 a 24 años fue abrumador el Remain –casi cuatro veces más–, en el rango de edad de 65 años para arriba dominó el Leave. Es decir, los jóvenes votaron en su mayoría por ser parte de la Unión, mientras que los viejos por salirse. Aunque varios analistas han sobreestimado la importancia de este resultado, no deja de ser significativo: los jóvenes y los adultos mayores en el Reino Unido tienen visiones muy distintas sobre su país y el papel que juega a nivel internacional, y serán los jóvenes los más afectados en el largo plazo por esta decisión –porque, pues, los viejos morirán antes. Este comentario de un lector en una nota del Financial Times (en inglés) lo resume bien.

Otra consecuencia, que ya empieza a notarse dentro del Reino Unido, es la posible implosión del Reino mismo. Ayer en la noche, el Sinn Fein, el principal partido republicano en Irlanda del Norte, dijo en voz de su líder, Declan Kearney, que “el gobierno británico ha renunciado a cualquier mandato para representar los intereses económicos y políticos de la gente Irlanda del Norte”. (ITV, en inglés) Esto porque los irlandeses del norte han votado en su mayoría por permanecer en la Unión. Martin McGuiness, también miembro de Sinn Fein, y viceprimer ministro del país, ha dicho en público que buscará un nuevo referendo: éste para ver si Irlanda del Norte se reunifica con Irlanda y abandona el Reino Unido. (The Telegraph, en inglés) Al mismo tiempo, Escocia, donde también fue abrumador el triunfo del Remain, contempla la posibilidad de repetir el referendo que realizó hace dos años, en el que se le preguntó a los escoceses si querían permanecer dentro del Reino Unido o no. El resultado en ese entonces fue de 55% contra 44% a favor de permanecer, pero las cosas podrían cambiar en una nueva votación, que, según la primer ministro, Nicola Sturgeon, es “muy posible”. (BBC, en inglés) El único país que votó junto con Inglaterra para abandonar la Unión fue Gales. 

Dentro de la propia Unión Europea los efectos ya comienzan a verse. Geert Wilders y Marie Le Pen, líderes de los partidos de extrema derecha en los Países Bajos y Francia, respectivamente, ya han llamado a realizar referendos en sus países, con el fin de determinar si ellos también quieren abandonar la Unión o permanecer. (Reuters, en inglés) Sin duda, una de las primeras conclusiones que se pueden hacer después del voto de ayer, es que se trata del triunfo del nacionalismo sobre la globalización. No por nada las comunidades menos educadas, aquellas con más niveles de xenofobia y cerrazón al mundo, son aquellas que votaron por irse, mientras que las más educadas y más globales –Londres, un ejemplo– votaron por quedarse, aunque en un margen más estrecho del que se pensaría. (Estas gráficas de Lord Ashcroft, en inglés, explican muy bien la relación entre los votos y las creencias de los británicos.)

A nivel global también habrá que tomar en cuenta este resultado, sobre todo por el impacto que podría tener en la elección más importante de este año, la presidencial de Estados Unidos. Donald Trump, el magnate xenófobo, antifeminista, anticalentamiento global y anti-muchas otras cosas, ha enarbolado su campaña alrededor del nacionalismo más ramplón. Su eslogan, “Make America Great Again”, Hagamos a Estados Unidos grande otra vez, conlleva un mensaje muy claro: esa “América” no incluye a los extranjeros, ni a sus hijos, ni siquiera a los ciudadanos legales. Es una “América” nativista, sin espacio para “los otros”. A pesar de que las encuestas –con resultados variados pero casi unánimes– otorgan una ventaja a Hillary Clinton, (Real Clear Politics, en inglés) el triunfo del Brexit no es menor. Puede darle un impulso a candidatos y visiones como la de Trump. No por nada, en su primer comunicado de prensa posterior al Brexit, Trump ya está comparando lo que pasó en el Reino Unido –donde los extremistas como el líder de UKIP, el partido más popular de esa franja, Nigel Farage, hablan del “Día de la  independencia” (BBC, en inglés)– con lo que podría pasar en noviembre en Estados Unidos. El candidato republicano también habla de independencia. (Facebook, en inglés) ¿De qué, si Estados Unidos se independizó en 1776? Una posibilidad es que hable de independizarse del Tratado de Libre Comercio (TLC), que sostiene partes importantes de las economías mexicana, estadunidense y canadiense. Trump ha repudiado el TLC en diversas ocasiones; no es difícil pensar que con el Brexit haga de este tema una parte más central de su discurso.

Decía Pepe Merino, académico del ITAM, en Twitter, que el Brexit dice “Adiós a nuestras certezas de finales del siglo XX…”, y tiene razón. El siglo pasado nos enseñaron que la historia terminaba, que los Estados-nación serían cosa del pasado, que la comunidad global era el futuro. Hoy los votantes británicos –y tal vez en noviembre en Estados Unidos– que siempre han intentado funcionar como, o más bien, imponer su ejemplo, nos han abierto dos posibilidades: 1) Que falte más tiempo del que se pensaba para que esto suceda, o 2) Que el futuro se parezca más bien al pasado.

Por último, y aunque tal vez frívolo para algunas personas, los impactos del Brexit van más allá de la política y la economía. En estas semanas se juega la Eurocopa, el torneo de naciones de futbol de Europa. Algo que ya empiezan a considerar algunos (Marca) es el efecto que tendrá en el futbol mundial –contratación y exportación de jugadores, entre otros– la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea. 

Apenas comenzamos a ver la punta del iceberg.

Nexos – Aldea21

Written by Jorge.Limon

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